Disclaimer

 

Numerical Models are realistic and ever improving representations of the world,
BUT they are not the world.

Computers are good at crunching numbers very fast,
BUT they are stupid machines.

These forecasts are ment to help with decisions, not to be a substitute for taking decisions. Jugde with your own eyes and beware that climbing is a risky, yet rewarding enterprise. By using the data we provide, you agree to do it at your own risk. We can not warrantee absolute reliability, continuity or consistency, as we bring to you an enormous amount of data which source is beyond our control. We do our best to provide reliable information, but we are not substitute for your own eyes and responsible decisions.

 

Note on the resolution of the models

GFS50km

GFS model at 0.5° resolution. Red triangle is the position of Everest. Shaded boxes are the model grid cells. Note how a single grid cell cover a very large area and is affected not only by the specific weather on the mountain mountain range, but has also influences from very different regions. This made the GFS too coarse for accurate forecasts. In addition, the surface topography is smoothed, so winds can be underestimate. During the pre-monzoon in the Himalayas, GFS is likely to overestimate precipitation and underestimate wind speed.

WRF01

WRF model at 0.1° resolution. Red triangle is the position of Everest. Shaded boxes are the model grid cells. Note the smaller size of the grid cells and therefore they are more representative of the local weather. While at 10 km the topography is still smooth, winds are more realistic and precipitation is better distributed. A single grid cells of the GFS at 0.5° contains 25 grid cells of the WRF at 0.1°

 

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